AlphaGen Research Ledger
A provenance-first morning brief that separates reported facts, source views, analyst inference, and unresolved uncertainty.
Each source below was admitted by the code-owned policy registry. Failures and empty windows remain explicit.
| Source policy | Coverage | Trust | Live path | Method | Run status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England | Central banks | primary | Public web | RSS | collected (1) |
| Bank of Japan | Central banks | primary | Public web | RSS | collected (5) |
| European Central Bank | Central banks | primary | Public web | RSS | collected (1) |
| Federal Reserve | Central banks | primary | Public web | RSS | empty (0) |
| SEC EDGAR | Company filings | primary | Public API | API | empty (0) |
| BIS FSI publications | Institutional reports | primary | Public web | RSS | empty (0) |
| U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission | Institutional reports | primary | Public web | RSS | failed (0) — authentication-failed |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration — Press Releases | Institutional reports | primary | Public web | RSS | empty (0) |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration — Today in Energy | Institutional reports | primary | Public web | RSS | collected (2) |
| CME DataMine entitlement | Market data | primary | Approval required | UNAVAILABLE | skipped (0) — approval-required |
| ECB Data Portal | Market data | primary | Public API | API | collected (1) |
| Eurostat — Economy and Finance | Market data | primary | Public web | RSS | empty (0) |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Market data | primary | Public web | RSS | collected (1) |
| GDELT Global News Discovery | Market news | reputable | Public API | API | failed (0) — rate-limited |
| Reuters Markets | Market news | reputable | Licensed feed | UNAVAILABLE | skipped (0) — license-required |
| Yahoo Finance | Market news | reputable | Approval required | UNAVAILABLE | skipped (0) — approval-required |
| arXiv Economics | Research papers | research | Public API | API | collected (5) |
| NBER working papers | Research papers | research | Public web | HTML | skipped (0) — connector-not-approved |
| Grok X market pulse | X social pulse | social | Credentialed API | API | skipped (0) — capability-not-configured |
Derived only from the canonical documents in this edition. The chart spec, dataset, renderer, and hashes are retained with the receipt.
| Source class | Documents |
|---|---|
| Market data | 2 |
| Central banks | 7 |
| Research papers | 5 |
| Institutional reports | 2 |
Major Economic Indicators Latest Numbers
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary market data source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
2026-08-06: 1.1542 U.S. dollars per euro; 2026-08-07: 1.1535 U.S. dollars per euro. Source: ECB statistics; formatting and observation selection by AlphaGen.
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary market data source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary institutional report source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
ECB publishes consolidated banking data for end-March 2026
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Amounts Outstanding in the Call Money Market (July)
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Consumption Activity Index
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Market Operations by the Bank of Japan (July)
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Monetary Base and the Bank of Japan's Transactions (July)
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Bank of Japan's Transactions with the Government (July)
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
Green notice 2026/02
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary central bank source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
The U.S.-Canada natural gas and electricity trade value rose in 2025
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a primary institutional report source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
I argue that there is a sense in which universal equilibrium (defined loosely) existence in games is incompatible with eschewing strictly dominated strategies and a sense in which it isn't.
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a research research paper source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
We develop a continuous-time stochastic choice theory with endogenous preference evolution. Unlike dynamic random utility, observed behavior affects future preferences through the conditional distribution of latent preference states, generating endogenous distributional feedback. We show that this feedback has observable behavioral implications and characterize stochastic choice by a behavioral representation consisting of contemporaneous choice and continuation behavior. This representation is identified from stochastic choice, yields a rigidity result linking structural preference dynamics to observable behavior, and characterizes exactly when distribution dependent utility is behaviorally reducible to dynamic random utility. We further prove a behavioral impossibility theorem: stochastic choice arrays exhibiting behavioral distributional feedback admit no dynamic random utility representation. On the probabilistic side, we establish existence and weak uniqueness for the underlying conditional McKean-Vlasov system with conditional law feedback. The structure unifies endogenous information, latent preference dynamics, behavioral identification, and stochastic choice within a single continuous-time model.
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a research research paper source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
We study double auctions for markets in which goods are valuable in bundles, such as data, model weights, and fine-tuned AI assets. A key friction in such markets is No Assembly: a platform may be unable, for legal or technical reasons, to combine components supplied by different sellers into a single bundle. We formulate a combinatorial buyer's-bid double auction under this constraint. Under explicit stability and price-influence conditions (maintained in general, and for two goods derived from local price-taking and a feedback bound), each bundle submarket inherits the large-market discipline of single-good double auctions: bid shading vanishes, and clearing prices concentrate on competitive levels and track the common value (price discovery). The key incentive step, that bidding on a bundle creates no first-order strategic distortion beyond the single-good logic, is proved for two goods; for larger item sets it remains a maintained condition. Multi-agent reinforcement-learning simulations decompose the welfare loss and indicate that No Assembly, not strategic shading, is the binding finite-market friction, with both losses small in moderately thick markets and declining with complementarity amongst goods.
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a research research paper source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
The extended-onion and C-vine constructions of Lewandowski, Kurowicka and Joe (2009) are standard methods for sampling from the $\mathrm{LKJ}_n(η)$ distribution on correlation matrices. We show that both arise from the simpler row-normalized Bartlett construction associated with the restricted-Wishart representation of Wang, Wu and Chu (2018), which reuses random quantities that the classical samplers regenerate. Two exact row-wise couplings establish this: the squared norm of the Gaussian vector supplying the onion's direction has exactly the Gamma law required for one component of the Beta radius, and the same vector, with one chi-squared variate, generates the entire row of mutually independent C-vine partial correlations with their required symmetric-Beta laws. Under gamma-ratio accounting, normalized Bartlett, the onion, and the conventional symmetric-Beta C-vine require $n-1$, $2(n-1)$, and $n(n-1)$ Gamma-equivalent calls. Controlled benchmarks confirm a low-dimensional advantage over the onion implementation and a persistent advantage over the C-vine implementations examined; direct Bartlett normalization also avoids subtractive complements, moving the small-$η$ zero-diagonal threshold from machine-epsilon scale toward the subnormal range. The sampler is valid for every real $η>0$ and requires only standard normal and chi-squared variates.
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a research research paper source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.
This paper investigates the strategic and welfare properties of endogenous population partitioning (secession) within large-population anonymous games featuring strategic heterogeneity. We consider a continuum-player framework with a binary action space where players are categorized either as fol- lowers, who experience positive network externalities from conformity, or as contrarians, who seek distinctiveness via anti-conformism. We fully characterize the set of Nash equilibria and establish con- ditions under which costless secession yields structural Pareto improvements. We demonstrate that in any strategically mixed society, every mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium admits a Pareto-improving se- cession. With finitely many types, secession systematically mitigates coordination frictions, enhancing both individual payoffs and aggregate utility. Furthermore, we characterize social planner configura- tions optimizing weighted aggregate utility, establishing a formal mathematical isomorphism between optimal jurisdictional design and the theory of Bayesian persuasion solved via concavification. Finally, we derive the structural conditions governing migration stability when subgroups can unilaterally re- locate across distinct societies.
Included because it passed the configured source policy and freshness window for a research research paper source. Materiality and causal analysis have not yet run.